Will Movie Attendance Ever Return to Pre-COVID Levels, Or Has Streaming Stolen the Show?

For as long as Australians have been queuing for bags of delicious overpriced popcorn, one thing has been consistent: 14–24-year-olds go to the movies more than anyone else.

In fact, in the pre-streaming golden age of the mid-70s, a staggering 92.7% of young people went to the cinema at least once a year. Even through the 80s, 90s, and 2000s, the numbers stayed high, rarely dipping below 85%.

But the last few years have thrown a popcorn bucket-sized curveball, which is made clear in the yearly data collected and published by Screen Australia.

The Big Drop

In 2019 - before COVID ever reached Australian shores - attendance among 14–24-year-olds slipped to 80%, the lowest in decades. Then came the lockdowns, restrictions, and that awkward fear of daring to cough in a cinema. In 2021, the number collapsed to a record low of 48.8%.

Since then, as COVID recedes into the rear-view mirror, there’s been a steady recovery. In 2022, attendance among 14–24-year-olds climbed to 64.1%, then rose again to 70.9% in 2023. That’s a strong rebound, but still well short of the 2014–2018 average of 85.4%. It begs the question: will we return to pre-COVID levels, or will cinema attendence stablise at a new, lower, level. Pointing to the drop seen in 2019, even before the pandemic made its presence known, some would suggest the latter option seems most likely.

Why the Slow Comeback?

Two words: streaming wars. Netflix. Disney+. Amazon Prime. Apple TV. Not only are they cheaper per month than a single cinema ticket, they let you watch in pyjamas. Suggesting that the rise in streaming is responsible for a downturn in cinema attendance is hardly a revolutionary idea. Even before COVID, streaming’s rise may have been quietly peeling audiences away from the big screen.

And for younger audiences in particular, there are other distractions also. YouTube, TikTok, and gaming are all competing for the same leisure hours that once belonged to the movies.

Will We Ever Get Back to 85%?

Well, history gives us hope. The 1980s VHS boom didn’t kill cinema, and neither did DVDs in the 2000s.

But both of those competed mostly on convenience. Streaming competes on the dual fronts of convenience and price, which makes it a trickier rival for cinemas to combat.

The most likely scenario? Attendance will no doubt climb a bit more as habits continue to normalise post-COVID, but it may plateau in the 75–80% range rather than the old highs of 85% and above. That would still be a healthy audience, but a sign that the age of streaming has somewhat dimmed cinema’s dominance.

The X-Factor

The one thing that could blow the numbers back into the 85% range overnight? A massive, can’t-miss cultural event film. Think Barbenheimer times ten. In the past, moments like Titanic, Lord of the Rings, or Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame have spiked attendance across all demographics.

If any studio can deliver another of those phenomenons, young people might just put down the remote, leave the couch, and head back to the big screen in droves.

For now, the 14–24 demographic remains, as ever, the most loyal cinema-goers, just not quite as loyal as they used to be. The real question is whether the 2020s will be remembered as the decade the cinema bounced back, or the decade streaming quietly won.